The provisional fertility rates numbers for Q3 of 2016 are in—and the news isn’t good. General fertility has fallen again, with younger age brackets showing the steepest declines.
While some demographers are convinced that birth rates will rebound when ‘millennials’ grow older, this risk-averse generation may continue to dash fertility expectations. Other demographic indicators (namely Hispanic and immigrant birth rates) also point to lower U.S. fertility. All told, it looks like the expected baby bump has been bumped—again.
The overall birth rate is gradually falling because the percentage drop in birth rates under age 30 is larger than the percentage rise in birth rates over age 30. Keep in mind that under-30 age brackets have always accounted for the most births, though the margin has been shrinking over time.